投稿分類 群突發處理

主委發表種類: 口頭

投稿標題(中): SARS-CoV-2 群聚後反思 從六個標準差、透視 “Patient flow” 照護品質並建構傳染病的數理模組

投稿標題(英): SARS-CoV-2 cluster reflections with 6-sigma to insight “Patient flow” with Reliability and MTTF failure of medical system and construct Math equation model

投稿摘要(前言): 2022 April 新冠肺炎Omicron 襲擊(assault) TZ ER, 啟動Project Management Concepts for “Patient Flow 病安醫療運作流程” . Hand on approach 實踐防禦方法 1、Emergency medical treatment and labor act行動 (EMTALA) 解決VRP (感染病人無壅塞之運送) ;
Each day, approximately 150 people die in European Union (EU) countries due to hospital acquired infections cost is phenomenal (驚人的).
(Increase in US Medication-error Deaths Lancet 351 (1998): 643-644)

投稿摘要(方法): 誤差數除以（單件數乘上機會數）就是DPO，乘上一百萬就是DPMO。亦見DPO，每次機會的誤差; DPMO，or Defects Per Million Opportunities 每百萬次的誤差數; ；、Six Sigma六標準
差、Defect Opportunity 誤差機會
KΣΣ{█((x ̅ij-x ̅i…)@-(x ̅.j.-x ̅…) 2 ##)} 0.0000034

SEIR型傳染病數理模型系統: SARS-CoV-2具有雙線性、R0值1.4~2.5之高傳染率;有易感染者S（Susceptible) 、受感染者I、(Infective) 及康復者 Я(Recovered )

Š≡-βSI ; È= ßSI -εE ; Î=εE-γI ; Я=γI
方程式的流程 S→ ßSI→E(εE)→I(γI)→R→

舉例 Example : (醫療兩個系統平行同時作業)
Assume that a medical system is composed of two active, independent, and identical
units and at least至少一單位正常運作 one of the units must operate normally for system success. The unit failure rate (單位錯誤率)is 0.0008 failures/hour. Calculate the medical system reliability for a 60-hour mission and mean time to failure.

投稿摘要(結果): Rps (60) = 1- [1-e-(0.00008)(60)] [1-e-(0.00008)(60)] = 0.9978 (醫療品質的可信賴度)
MTTFps = 1/((0.00008) )
∑_(r=1)^2▒1/j = 1,875 hours (醫療錯誤的平均時間)
medical system reliability and mean time to failure are 0.9978 and 1,875
hours, respectively.
MTTFps parallel system mean time to failure
R medical system reliability

投稿摘要(討論): 方程式的流程 S→ ßSI→E(εE)→I(γI)→R→
1、驗證疫情與系統吻合的，且得到一個CoV-2控制帶形控制區域
2、有限差分數值法分析系統的解
3、結果：分析無病均衡點的整體穩定性（即，疾病完全根絕）及疾病均衡點的整
體穩定性 (即疾病持續控制在某區域點附近）。
4、整體穩定性由基本再生數p決定。若p <1，則無病均衡點是整體
穩定的；反之，若p > 1，則疾病均衡點整體穩定的。
數值解釋呈現關於疾病的防治，脈衝接種策略（Pulse Vaccination Strategy)比連續接種策略(Continuous Vaccination Strategy)稍微有效

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